State Of The Union Pt 1: International break special
A two-parter assessing the start to the season under Wayne Rooney
Hello from a much-delayed One Team In Devon newsletter – sent from cloudy San Francisco. Excuse any jetlagged nonsense from me.
Throughout the transfer window it was hard to write anything meaningful without the risk of it being hopelessly outdated within minutes of publishing – and even the transfer window was immediately placed in the rear-view mirror, with the loss to Stoke just 16 hours later.
But what more perfect time to reflect than the first international break?
Let’s be honest, the situation (on paper) isn’t great. In the league Argyle are yet to register a win after four games. In that time, we’ve scored only two goals – and embarrassed ourselves on Sky TV. And the underlying numbers aren’t pretty.
But is it all that bleak? Let’s dive in and take a look.
Check out part 2:
The Window
Argyle certainly had an eventful transfer window, and were active until the dying hours. It could have been even bigger, with a £12.5m offer for Morgan Whittaker submitted on the final day. I feel that if this had come earlier, it could have been accepted, and kick-started a new era of Argyle spending.
Attack was bolstered significantly, and there was a defensive overhaul, too.
Curiously, the one area I felt we really needed an overhaul – aside from the hallowed #10 - was in the centre. But the only addition there was Darko Gyabi, not a natural #6/8.
The arrival of Rami Al Hajj capped off a decent window for Argyle – and the arrival of Szucs, Cissoko, Obemefi and Grimshaw look particularly eye catching.
The interesting and eye-opening interview with Jimmy Dickinson provides good colour here, and he revealed that many of the players signed had been tracked for years by the recruitment team.
It was also telling that Dickinson reminded fans that new players take time to bed in. We certainly shouldn’t be judging signings on one or two games. We all remember the best of Finn Azaz, but we should acknowledge that he was at Home Park for 18 months, and his best football was played at the end of that spell.
My personal opinion is that Argyle had a good window. Of course, every signing won’t be a hit. But last year’s frustration was a lack of attacking options and that has been firmly addressed. I have it on good authority that Michael Baidoo was agnonisingly close to getting over the line, which with holding onto Morgan Whittaker, would have been a perfect window.
I share the opinion of others that there’s unspent money, and that is obviously frustrating. Jimmy Dickinson was at pains to say that the club wouldn’t sign players in a panic or on a whim – so let’s hope Baidoo can be done in January.
The Stats
Al Hajj was a crucial missing piece of the puzzle. Everyone can see the hole left by Azaz, and creativity has been Argyle’s weak point this season.
The below chart is presented merely for interest. No-one should talk much about xG over four games. Especially when one was largely played with 10 men, and another was biblically woeful. Those two games (50% of our league fixtures) colour the stats hugely.
But Argyle are bottom for expected goals (xG) and to add a touch of poetry, Finn Azaz’s Middlesborough top the pile. It also gets worse.
Argyle also have the second worst xGA and the two combine to make us the worst xG difference. It makes absolutely abysmal reading, even if there are significant caveats.
I’m not overly concerned about this chart. As I’ll come onto, Argyle’s performances have been improving in cohesion and belief, and the addition of Al Hajj will (almost) certainly bring those around him into play. His reel – and the comments of Dickinson – show an unselfish player, keen to pass and thread players in.
The System
The system seems to have evolved slightly in the early days of Rooney. From an all-out 4-4-2 playing a second striker in the early days, Rooney has tweaked to a 4-2-3-1, with a #10 behind the striker. The square peg of Gyabi and Bundu in this system has negatively affected chance creation, so as long as Al Hajj stays fit forever, we should see an improvement.
Rooney has also started to solve initial issues with Whittaker being isolated on the right – which is likely a combination of training tweaks and having Mentality Monster Joe Edwards back on the right. Whittaker has got himself into increasingly dangerous shooting positions over the past couple of games.
Would I change the system? Well, everything points to a 4-3-3 being a better fit, which would get Cissoko and Whittaker closer to the danger zone. Do I think Rooney should change? No.
I don’t like the idea of managers scrapping their beliefs – but I do think we need a second shape that isn’t 4-2-3-1 in case Al Hajj doesn’t play. That could be a 3-5-2, which was toyed with against Watford.
The 4-3-2-1 shape is also improving. It creates a 3-2-5 in possession (which we analyzed back in this newsletter), with a W shaped attacking formation (hat tip Aaron Cusack for the above), with an inverting LB (Mumba) and #10 (soon to be Al Hajj) joining Cissoko, Hardie/Obefemi and Whittaker).
Rooney has bemoaned a lack of ruthlessness – and that has been largely taken as a sign that Argyle aren’t finishing chances. Rightly, it has been pointed out that our low xG chances are simply too difficult to finish and he should shape the team to create better ones.
I’d like to think that Rooney is referring to decision-making in the final third, rather than simply a cool head in front of goal. Check out Aaron Cusack’s brilliant analysis show, and you’ll see a well-drilled attacking system, but players not executing around the penalty area.
Covering ground in midfield has proved to be the challenge, with Forshaw struggling to cover (as demonstrated at QPR). Randell seems to be growing into the role, and his passing range against Stoke shows why he’s first pick there. Freed from the #10 role, I hope Gyabi has a successful season in that position. His athleticism and drive is perfect for the role, but he needs to show what he’s capable in terms of passing.
The verdict: cautious optimism
I’m a hopeless optimist, but I’ve enjoyed watching large portions of Argyle under Rooney.
There’s a lot to like about Wazball. High turnovers, good building play, getting numbers forward.
I feel like a well-balanced side is close – and we have the right pieces to be a good side. But Rooney has few games to show it before things start to look bleak - and if confidence evaporates from the terraces and the dressing room, that’s when things start to get sticky.